What leverage means on a prediction market
A prediction market prices a yes/no question between 0¢ and 100¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if it does not, so a price of 62¢ means the market puts the chance at about 62%. Without leverage, $100 buys $100 of shares and the most you can make is the move from your entry price to $1.
Leverage multiplies the size of the position, not the money you risk. With 5× leverage your $100 margin opens a $500 position. If the price moves your way, the profit is five times larger; if it moves against you, the loss is five times larger, and once losses reach your margin the position closes. On Probio your loss on a position is limited to the margin committed to it plus fees: losses are never taken from the rest of your balance.
Worked example: $100 at 5× on a 50¢ market
- You buy Yes at 50¢ with $100 margin at 5×. The position is $500, which buys 1,000 shares.
- Fees are $2.50: a 1% entry fee ($1.00), 0.2% per 1× of leverage ($1.00) and a $0.50 network fee.
- If the event happens, each share pays $1. Your payout is $600: your $100 margin plus $500 profit. Unleveraged, the same $100 would have made $100.
- If the price falls to 40¢ before then, the position is liquidated and the $100 margin is lost.
- You can close at any time before that by selling at the current best bid, locking in the profit or loss so far.
Profit = shares × (exit price − entry price), where shares = margin × leverage ÷ entry priceLiquidation price and how far a market can move
A leveraged long is liquidated when the market falls far enough to use up the margin. The higher the leverage, the closer the liquidation price sits to your entry:
Liquidation price = entry price × (1 − 1 ÷ leverage)| Leverage | Liquidation price (Yes bought at 50¢) | Price move that wipes out margin | Max margin per position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1× | None (cannot be liquidated) | To 0¢ | $5,000 |
| 2× | 25.0¢ | 50% fall | $2,500 |
| 3× | 33.3¢ | 33% fall | $1,666.66 |
| 5× | 40.0¢ | 20% fall | $1,000 |
| 10× | 45.0¢ | 10% fall | $500 |
Prediction markets often jump when news breaks. A market can move straight past your liquidation or stop-loss level, so a position may close at a worse price than the level shown. Size positions so that losing the full margin is acceptable.
Why traders use leverage on event markets
- Capital efficiency: express a strong view without tying up the full position value.
- Short-term moves: many markets move 5–15¢ around debates, data releases and polls. Leverage makes those moves meaningful before final resolution.
- Hedging: a small leveraged position can offset exposure you already have elsewhere.
- Defined risk: your loss is capped at the margin on that position, and stop-loss and take-profit levels can be set when you open it.
Limits and price protection
Every position is limited to $5,000 notional (margin × leverage), so $500 at 10× or $1,000 at 5×. Your total across all markets in one event is limited to $5,000. Orders are priced by walking the live order book for the full position size, and refused if the estimated fill is more than 5% worse than the best price, so one order cannot push a thin market to an unrealistic price.
Leveraged vs standard prediction markets
| Standard prediction market | Probio (leveraged) | |
|---|---|---|
| Position size | Equal to the money spent | Up to 10× the margin |
| Maximum loss | Amount spent | Margin committed plus fees |
| Can be liquidated | No | Yes, above 1× |
| Profit from a 10¢ move on $100 | $20 at 50¢ | $100 at 5× |
| Parlays | Usually not available | 2–8 legs, up to 1,000× |
How to open a leveraged prediction market position on Probio
- 1Open probiomarkets.com and pick a market from the Markets page.
- 2Choose Yes or No.
- 3Enter your margin and drag leverage from 1× to 10×. The ticket shows the position size, fees and liquidation price.
- 4Optionally set a stop-loss and take-profit.
- 5Confirm. Practise first in demo mode with $10,000 of virtual funds.
Most traded markets right now
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? $12.8M vol87%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? $10.2M vol91%- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? $9.8M vol14%
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? $5.8M vol<1%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? $2.1M vol<1%
2026 Balance of Power: Other $3.1M vol<1%
Frequently asked questions
What is a leveraged prediction market?
A prediction market where you can open a position larger than your deposit. On Probio, leverage from 1× to 10× multiplies both profit and loss on Yes/No outcomes priced from live Polymarket order books.
How much leverage can I use?
Up to 10×, with a maximum position of $5,000 notional. That means at most $500 of margin at 10×.
Can I lose more than I put in?
No. A position can lose at most the margin committed to it plus fees. It is liquidated before losses exceed the margin.
How is the liquidation price calculated?
Liquidation price = entry price × (1 − 1 ÷ leverage). At 5× on a 50¢ entry, that is 40¢.
Does Polymarket offer leverage?
Polymarket shares are bought outright with no built-in leverage. Probio uses Polymarket prices and lets you trade the same markets with up to 10× leverage. Probio is not affiliated with Polymarket.
What does leverage cost?
1% of margin plus 0.2% of margin per 1× of leverage, plus $0.50 per order. A $100 position at 10× pays $3.50 in total.
Keep reading
Trading involves risk, and leverage can lose you your whole margin. Probio is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. See the Market Integrity Policy and Terms of Use.