Learn

Prediction markets, explained.

A prediction market prices a question about the future between 0¢ and 100¢, and the price is the crowd’s probability. Probio adds two things on top: leverage up to 10×, and parlays that multiply several outcomes into one bet. Everything you need to trade them well is here, with real numbers.

Start from the beginning Practise with $10,000 demo

Two ideas that set Probio apart

Most prediction markets let you buy a share and wait. Probio lets you size up with leverage, or stack outcomes into a single parlay.

How 5× leverage changes a prediction market trade$100 margin at 5× on a market at 50 cents controls a $500 position. A move to 60 cents makes $100 instead of $20; a fall to 40 cents liquidates the position and loses the $100 margin.$100 margin × 5 = $500 positionYes bought at 50¢ · 1,000 shares40¢45¢50¢55¢60¢60¢ target · +$100Entry 50¢Liquidation 40¢ · margin lostProfit on a 10¢ move+$201×+$1005×Loss capped at the $100 margin
Leverage multiplies the move
  • $100 at 5× controls a $500 position, so a 10¢ move pays $100, not $20.
  • The same 5× means a 10¢ fall from a 50¢ entry hits liquidation.
  • You can never lose more than the margin on that position.
Read the leverage guide
How a three-leg prediction market parlay multipliesLegs priced 50, 40 and 25 cents multiply to combined odds of 5 percent, a 20 times payout: a $10 stake pays $200 if all three win.LEG 1Fed holds ratesYES50¢50% chance×LEG 2Team wins finalNO40¢40% chance×LEG 3BTC above targetYES25¢25% chanceBet slip · 3 legsCOMBINED ODDS0.50 × 0.40 × 0.25 = 5%20×$10 stake pays$200Every leg must win. Related legs are blocked.
Parlays multiply the odds
  • Multiply the leg prices to get the chance all of them win: 50¢ × 40¢ × 25¢ = 5%.
  • One divided by that is the payout: 20×, so $10 pays $200.
  • Related legs are blocked, so the odds you see are fair.
Read the parlay guide

Your learning path

Five guides, about five minutes each. Start at the top or jump to what you need.

  1. 1BasicsWhat are prediction markets? A plain-English guideRead
  2. 2LeverageLeveraged prediction markets: how they workRead
  3. 3ParlaysPrediction market parlays: combine outcomes, multiply the oddsRead
  4. 4PolymarketTrade Polymarket markets with leverageRead
  5. 5StrategyPrediction market strategy: sizing, leverage and exitsRead

Key numbers

Taken straight from the platform’s live settings.

Leverage1× to 10× on any Yes or No outcome
Liquidation priceEntry price × (1 − 1 ÷ leverage)
Most you can loseThe margin on that position, plus fees
Trading fee1% of margin + 0.2% per 1× of leverage + $0.50
Position limit$5,000 notional (margin × leverage)
Per-event limit$5,000 across every market in one event
Parlay legs2 to 8, every leg must win
Parlay payoutUp to 1,000× the stake, $5,000 max per live slip
Parlay feeUnder 5×: 5% · 5–20×: 7.5% · 20–100×: 10% · 100× and up: 15%
Early cash-out10% of the slip’s fair value
Practice$10,000 demo balance, no account needed

Glossary

Prediction market
A market where people trade shares on the outcome of a future event. Prices run from 0¢ to 100¢ and a winning share pays $1, so the price works as the crowd’s probability estimate.
Event contract
Another name for a prediction market share: a contract that pays a fixed amount if a specified event happens.
Yes / No share
The two sides of a binary market. A Yes share pays $1 if the event happens; a No share pays $1 if it does not. Their prices add up to about $1.
Implied probability
The chance of an outcome implied by its price. A 35¢ Yes share implies about a 35% chance.
Leverage
A multiple applied to your margin to set the size of a position. On Probio, 1× to 10×: $100 at 5× controls a $500 position.
Margin
The money you commit to a leveraged position. It is the most you can lose on that position, plus fees.
Notional
The full size of a position: margin multiplied by leverage.
Liquidation price
The price at which a leveraged position closes because losses have used up the margin. For a long position: entry price × (1 − 1 ÷ leverage).
Parlay
One bet that combines several outcomes. All legs must win, and the payout multiple is one divided by the product of the leg prices.
Leg
One outcome inside a parlay.
Payout multiple
How many times the stake a winning parlay pays, before fees. Three legs at 50¢ pay 8×.
Cash-out
Closing an open parlay before it settles, for its current fair value less a fee.
Order book
The list of open bids and asks for a market. Probio prices fills by walking the live Polymarket order book for the full size of an order.
Slippage
The difference between the best displayed price and the average price an order actually fills at, which grows with order size in thin markets.
Stop-loss
A price at which an open position is closed automatically to limit losses.
Take-profit
A price at which an open position is closed automatically to lock in gains.
Resolution
The moment a market’s outcome is decided and winning shares are paid $1.
Polymarket
A large prediction market whose public prices and order books Probio uses. Probio is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket.

Browse markets by topic

Politics prediction marketsElections prediction marketsSports prediction marketsCrypto prediction marketsEconomics prediction marketsBusiness prediction marketsStocks prediction marketsTechnology prediction marketsEntertainment prediction marketsScience prediction marketsWeather prediction markets
Ready to try it?

Every feature works in demo mode with $10,000 of practice funds. No account, no deposit.

Open the markets Build a parlay