Politics prediction markets

Who wins, who resigns, what passes. Political markets price the news before it happens, and every price is the crowd’s live probability.

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Most traded today

  1. Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? $10.2M vol Ends 4 Nov 202691%Yes
  2. 2026 Balance of Power: Other $3.1M vol Ends 4 Nov 2026<1%Yes
  3. Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? $28.6M vol Ends 8 Nov 2028<1%Yes
  4. Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? $3.9M vol Ends 19 Apr 202748%Yes
  5. Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? $7.6M vol Ends 28 Oct 202632%Yes
  6. Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? $3.9M vol Ends 4 Nov 202665%Yes
  7. Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? $640.4k vol Ends 8 Nov 2028<1%Yes
  8. Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? $1.1M vol Ends 31 Oct 20267%Yes
  9. Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? $2.5M vol Ends 8 Nov 2028<1%Yes
  10. Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? $1.6M vol Ends 31 Oct 202613%Yes
  11. Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? $8.5M vol Ends 8 Nov 2028<1%Yes
  12. Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? $1.8M vol Ends 4 Nov 202663%Yes
  13. Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? $1.4M vol Ends 5 Jan 202714%Yes
  14. Trump out as President before 2027? $12.6M vol Ends 1 Jan 20274%Yes
  15. Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? $11.1M vol Ends 8 Nov 2028<1%Yes
  16. Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? $3.0M vol Ends 19 Apr 20271%Yes
  17. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? $14.9M vol Ends 1 Jan 202713%Yes
  18. Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? $2.4M vol Ends 19 Apr 20272%Yes
  19. Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? $7.6M vol Ends 4 Nov 202610%Yes
  20. Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? $497.8k vol Ends 4 Nov 202626%Yes
  21. Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? $836.2k vol Ends 1 Nov 2026<1%Yes
  22. Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? $44.1M vol Ends 1 Jan 20272%Yes
  23. 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House $7.4M vol Ends 4 Nov 202610%Yes
  24. Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? $3.8M vol Ends 28 Oct 202614%Yes

Politics markets: common questions

Where do the political odds come from?

Every price is the live Polymarket order book for that market, so the odds move with real money on both sides.

What is a prediction market?

A market on a yes/no question. A Yes share pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if not, so its price (say 62¢) is the crowd’s probability (62%).

How much do I need to start?

Nothing to practise: every visitor gets $10,000 in demo funds. Live trades start from $1, funded with USDG, ETH, USDC, USDT or SOL.

What does leverage do?

It multiplies your exposure, up to 10×. A 5× position moves five times as much as the price, in both directions, and is closed automatically before it can lose more than your margin.

Where do prices come from?

Every market, price and order book is pulled live from Polymarket. Probio does not invent odds.

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