Start with an edge
Write down your own probability before looking at the price. If you think an event is 55% likely and Yes trades at 45¢, you have a 10-point edge. If your estimate matches the price, there is no trade, however strongly you feel about the outcome.
Expected value per $1 share = your probability − priceSize positions so you can be wrong
Even good forecasts lose often. Risking a small fraction of your balance on each idea keeps a run of losses survivable. With leverage, size by the margin you are prepared to lose, not by the position value.
Use leverage for moves, not for outcomes
Leverage is best suited to a specific expected move, such as a poll, a debate or a data release, with a clear exit. Holding a high-leverage position for weeks exposes it to every swing on the way, and any one of them can reach the liquidation price.
| Leverage | Liquidation price (Yes bought at 50¢) | Price move that wipes out margin | Max margin per position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1× | None (cannot be liquidated) | To 0¢ | $5,000 |
| 2× | 25.0¢ | 50% fall | $2,500 |
| 3× | 33.3¢ | 33% fall | $1,666.66 |
| 5× | 40.0¢ | 20% fall | $1,000 |
| 10× | 45.0¢ | 10% fall | $500 |
Plan the exit when you enter
- Set a stop-loss at the price that would prove your view wrong, above the liquidation price.
- Set a take-profit where the market would reflect your estimate.
- Close manually when the reason for the trade has played out, even before resolution.
Parlays as a satellite, not a core
Parlays multiply both your edges and the market’s. Keep stakes small, choose legs you have a view on rather than filling the slip, and remember that related legs are blocked because they do not multiply fairly.
Most traded markets right now
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? $12.8M vol87%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? $10.2M vol91%- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? $9.8M vol14%
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? $5.8M vol<1%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? $2.1M vol<1%
2026 Balance of Power: Other $3.1M vol<1%
Frequently asked questions
What is the best leverage for prediction markets?
There is no single answer. Lower leverage survives normal price swings; higher leverage suits short, specific moves with a tight exit plan.
How do I find mispriced markets?
Form your own probability from evidence first, then compare it with the price. Differences of several points on liquid markets are worth investigating.
Should I hold until resolution?
Not necessarily. You can close any time at the current bid, which is often the better choice once the move you expected has happened.
Keep reading
Trading involves risk, and leverage can lose you your whole margin. Probio is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. See the Market Integrity Policy and Terms of Use.