Prices are probabilities
If a Yes share costs 30¢ and pays $1 when the event happens, buying it is only worthwhile if you think the real chance is above 30%. Traders who disagree push the price up or down until it settles where buyers and sellers balance. That is why prediction market prices are often used as forecasts.
Profit per Yes share = $1 − price (if Yes) · Loss = price (if No)What you can trade
- Politics and elections: who wins, by how much, and when.
- Economics: interest-rate decisions, inflation prints, recessions.
- Crypto: price thresholds for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana by a date.
- Sports: championships, matches and awards.
- Technology, science, culture and weather.
Probio lists thousands of open markets, browsable by topic at probiomarkets.com/markets.
Three ways to trade on Probio
| Style | What it does | Best for |
|---|---|---|
| Spot (1×) | Buy Yes or No outright | Long-term views, lowest risk |
| Leverage (2–10×) | Multiply the position on one outcome | Short-term moves, strong conviction |
| Parlay | Combine 2–8 outcomes, all must win | Large payouts from small stakes |
Getting started
You can try every feature with a $10,000 demo balance and no account. To trade live, create a free account, deposit USDG or ETH on Robinhood Chain, or USDC, USDT or SOL on Solana, and your deposit is credited to one USD balance. Probio also installs on iPhone and Android from probiomarkets.com.
Most traded markets right now
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? $12.8M vol87%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? $10.2M vol91%- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? $9.8M vol14%
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? $5.8M vol<1%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? $2.1M vol<1%
2026 Balance of Power: Other $3.1M vol<1%
Frequently asked questions
Are prediction markets accurate?
They are often well calibrated because traders put money behind their views, but they are not certain. A 70% market is expected to be wrong about three times in ten.
What happens when a market resolves?
Winning shares pay $1 each and losing shares pay nothing. On Probio, leveraged positions settle at the final outcome automatically.
Do I need crypto to start?
Not to practise: demo mode needs no account or deposit. Live trading is funded with stablecoins or ETH/SOL.
What is the difference between a prediction market and a sportsbook?
A sportsbook sets the odds. On a prediction market the odds are prices set by trading, and you can exit a position before the event ends.
Keep reading
Trading involves risk, and leverage can lose you your whole margin. Probio is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. See the Market Integrity Policy and Terms of Use.