Weather prediction markets

Hottest day, biggest storm, warmest year. Weather markets let you trade the forecast itself.

Open markets
67
24h volume (top 24)
$4.1k
Trade weather markets How it works

Most traded today

  1. Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? $711.8k vol Ends 2 Mar 202781%Yes
  2. Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? $16.6k vol Ends 1 Jan 202789%Yes
  3. Will Rwanda have an Ebola case in 2026? $3.9k vol Ends 1 Jan 202721%Yes
  4. Will Canada have an Ebola case in 2026? $3.2k vol Ends 1 Jan 202710%Yes
  5. 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? $332.1k vol Ends 1 Feb 20274%Yes
  6. Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? $6.5M vol Ends 1 Jan 20277%Yes
  7. Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? $210.8k vol Ends 1 Jan 202725%Yes
  8. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? $18.6M vol Ends 1 Jan 20271%Yes
  9. Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? $1.8M vol Ends 1 Jan 20274%Yes
  10. Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? $335.8k vol Ends 1 Jan 202798%Yes
  11. AI data center in space by December 31, 2027? $34.9k vol Ends 1 Jan 202825%Yes
  12. 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? $826.3k vol Ends 1 Feb 2027<1%Yes
  13. Ebola pandemic in 2026? $783.9k vol Ends 1 Jan 20272%Yes
  14. Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? $468.8k vol Ends 2 Mar 202720%Yes
  15. Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? $16.6k vol Ends 1 Jan 202727%Yes
  16. Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? $703 vol Ends 1 Jan 202779%Yes
  17. Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? $350.6k vol Ends 1 Jan 20278%Yes
  18. Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? $604.4k vol Ends 31 Dec 2026<1%Yes
  19. Will there be at least 7000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? $941 vol Ends 1 Jan 202753%Yes
  20. Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? $500.9k vol Ends 1 Jan 202733%Yes
  21. Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? $420.7k vol Ends 8 Jan 202718%Yes
  22. Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? $46.5k vol Ends 1 Jan 20276%Yes
  23. Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026? $4.9k vol Ends 1 Jan 202729%Yes
  24. Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? $293.4k vol Ends 8 Jan 202719%Yes

Weather markets: common questions

What is a prediction market?

A market on a yes/no question. A Yes share pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if not, so its price (say 62¢) is the crowd’s probability (62%).

How much do I need to start?

Nothing to practise: every visitor gets $10,000 in demo funds. Live trades start from $1, funded with USDG, ETH, USDC, USDT or SOL.

What does leverage do?

It multiplies your exposure, up to 10×. A 5× position moves five times as much as the price, in both directions, and is closed automatically before it can lose more than your margin.

Where do prices come from?

Every market, price and order book is pulled live from Polymarket. Probio does not invent odds.

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